The dollar dipped on Wednesday as risk sentiment improved and as investors focused on rising commodity prices and when global central banks are likely to begin hiking interest rates to fend off persistently high inflation.
The greenback hit a one-year high against a basket of other currencies last week as market participants ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner than expected to quell rising price pressures.
Those bets have faded, however, while investors are pricing for even more aggressive rate increases in other countries and as commodity-linked currencies including the Canadian and Australian dollars outperform.
“When it comes to central banks, there’s a lot of aggressive pricing out there,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto, noting that the market is likely overstating how quickly rate hikes will come.
The dollar index fell 0.24% to 93.57.
Rai expects the dollar may outperform if investors pare back rate hike expectations in other countries, though “that’s something that’s going to take some time to correct.”
“When push comes to shove, given the underlying fundamentals in the United States, which are still very constructive for growth, we think the Fed is probably going to be the central bank that raises rates over the course of the coming years at a bit of a more aggressive clip than the market is pricing in now,”.
Market participants are pricing for the Fed to raise rates twice by the end of 2022.